Chris Lintott’s Universe

If you listened to the latest Living Space podcast you’ll have heard us talking about the then breaking news that a little asteroid called 2007WD5 had a small chance of hitting Mars. At the time the chance was given as 1 in 75, but new observations which have more tightly constrained its orbit raise that to about 1 in 25. OK, as the Bad Astronomer notes that’s still a 96% chance of nothing, but it’s not yet zero.

Given the fleet of spacecraft we have around the red planet right now, this would be an amazing impact to watch; you can even imagine Opportunity seeing the meteor in the sky as it headed for impact, with the crash watched by Mars Express and MRO. It’s a strange shift in perspective; instead of hoping Earth is out of the way, I’m hoping those odds narrow further and January 30th brings a spectacular impact.

Update : Odds now 1 in 28
Update 2 : Mars is safe.

Sadly, my laptop is out of commission, so now review of 2007 just yet. But in the meantime, you should all read Steve Eales’ article on why we should fund astronomy, as published in this month’s Prospect. He ends by arguing that the correct level of funding is one which sees the number of foreign scientists working in the UK increasing. I’m not sure this is quite right - that just ensures things are better here than elsewhere - but it’s an interesting thought. I wonder how to calculate if this is currently the case or not?

I’ve just made my first post on the new Galaxy Zoo blog, which is designed to keep you up to date with the process of writing the first papers. A roundup of the 2007 coming on this site tomorrow…

This is the 3.5m WIYN telescope on Kitt Peak.

In April, 5 nights of time will be spent following up work done by the good people of the Galaxy Zoo. The actual project is rather unexpected; early in the project Bill Keel of the University of Alabama appeared on our forum, asking people to keep an eye out for overlapping galaxies. Not mergers, but overlaps. Not all are as spectacular as NGC3314 (the object that also provides Prof. Keel’s handle on the forum) but our industrious users have discovered lots of them - and now one of the largest and most modern telescopes in the world is following up their discovery. Christmas come early, if you ask me.

Anyone reading this blog last week would have heard about the doom and gloom that’s enfolding UK astronomy. There are two things you could do to help us; the first is to sign the petition that’s up here. If we’re to save the situation, though, we need as many people as possible to write to their MPs - Save Astronomy has details of how to do that. Please, please, please help us!

STFC have just released their plan based on currently available funding. It doesn’t make pretty reading so let’s start with the good news.

Safe
1. Our membership of ESO, which provides for access to the VLT, VISTA and, in the future, ALMA.

2. Long term planning for the next generation of telescopes, an Extremely Large (optical) Telescope and the Square Kilometer Radio array.

3. The JCMT. I’m surprised at this, and very, very happy.

4. Exomars, the European Mars lander, although participation in future missions is to be reviewed. We will be working with NASA directly on a joint program of robotic exploration of the Moon.

Under threat or being reviewed

1. As reported on this blog earlier this morning, UKIRT.

2. MERLIN, the radio network based on Jodrell Bank which is about to complete an expensive upgrade.

3. The Liverpool Telescope.

4. UK participation in Dark Energy Survey.

5. We’re remaining members of ESA (no-one ever thought otherwise) but the support offered post-launch is going to be cut by 30%. This means fewer scientists to actually reap the benefits of our participation.

6. Anything on the border of astronomy and particle physics, including the Boulby Mine dark matter experiments, CLOVER (the CMB experiment), and the detection of gravitational waves.

Going

1. We already knew about Gemini.
Update As Andrew notes, the plan includes the aim of retaining some access to Gemini North, which appears to be a change from the previous announcement.

2. Confirmed rundown of our commitment to the telescopes on La Palma, primarily the Issac Newton group of telescopes. That’s more northern hemisphere telescopes gone; have we decided we’re only going to look at half the sky?

3. Any ground based studies of the interaction between the Sun and the Earth’s atmosphere

4. High-energy gamma-ray astronomy.

Comments? For purely personal reasons I’m really pleased the JCMT survives. As for the rest, I think a lot will depend on which way the reviewed items swing; UKIRT and MERLIN, among others, have just had expensive new instruments/upgrades and it seems crazy to abandon them now. The post-launch support for ESA is troubling, as this suggests we might be moving to a situation where we build but don’t get the best out of space probes.

Update : According to Stuart (who also has a transcript of the Today interviews), UKIRT, the LT and MERLIN were up for review anyway.

Update : Apparently the decision to reduce funding to UKIRT from 2010 was made back in May 2006, and the fact that this email came out today is a complete coincidence.

Warning : If you don’t care about the funding of astronomy in the UK, I’d take the next couple of days off.

Obviously we still don’t know what the terms of the review are going to be, but a clue as to how things are going to end up arrived in my inbox this morning. The e-newsletter of the American Astronomical Society includes an advert appealing for funds for UKIRT. UKIRT may be one of the older telescopes the UK runs, but with the new UKIDSS survey it’s more effective now than ever before, and yet having spent money on new instruments to make this possible we’re giving away our access. Here’s the note in full:

The United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) is the largest
telescope in the world operating exclusively in the infrared region
of the spectrum. It occupies a prime location on the world’s best
mountain site and is equipped with a comprehensive and versatile
suite of instrumentation, including the Wide-Field Camera (WFCAM),
the world’s best infrared panoramic imager. A fact sheet describing
the facility and its capabilities may be found here:
http://www.jach.hawaii.edu/UKIRT/factsheet.pdf.

Interested parties should contact the UKIRT Director, Professor Gary
Davis, at g.davis@jach.hawaii.edu.

I dread to think what else is going to go today.

Today, Tuesday, is not going to be a good day for astronomers in the UK unless I’m very much mistaken. Particularly for post-docs whose contracts run out in the near future (like me). We already know that we’re going to lose access to the Gemini Observatory. But the real picture is almost certainly much worse than that. Andy is reporting informal discussions of cuts at the 25-40% level. As the Royal Astronomical Society point out, what’s worse is that these cuts are being made ‘with no briefing or consultation of the community during the decision making process’.

The reasons for the cuts aren’t officially clear. There are several factors at work, but among them is the need to bear the costs for new facilities being provided at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, in particular the Diamond Light source. Before last year, this would have had nothing to do with the astronomy budget, but now we’ve been merged with the research council that used to run RAL it’s our problem too. I went back to the parliamentary record to see what had been said about the launch of the new Science and Technologies Facilities Council, and found Lord Truscott, a Labour peer, introducing the new council in the House of Lords. He said, just under a year ago In essence, I can confirm again that this is not a cost-saving measure. . In which case why are astronomers now paying for other’s projects?

Of course, it may be that the pessimists have got there first, and the announcement will bring good news to all. I doubt it, though. Hold on tight - it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Update: A pretty good BBC story here, although you should note that as far as I understand it, STFC didn’t get things wrong, CCLRC did. (CCLRC was the council merged with the particle physics and astronomy research council to form STFC - ie it wasn’t us!). those from beyond particle physics and astronomy did. (Update per comment below).

Update : Excellent interview on the Today programme today with the minister which seems to announce a review. It’s at about 7.22. I’ll get a transcript up later.

My favourite posts of the last year are probably the reports I filed while observing on Mauna Kea. From the emails, they were among your favourites too, so I’ve been particularly remiss in not linking to Rob’s experiences, both good and less good, as he got (and then recovered from) a nasty bout of altitude sickness.

It’s difficult to describe the emotions associated with observing and so, instead of waffling on, I present Hotel Mauna Kea. Not my work, but genius all the same.

Hat tip : Robin Leadbeater
Credits : Credits: Juan Delgado (Flamenco guitar), Kelly Fast (vocal, videography, 12-string guitar), Ted Kostiuk (spoken vocal), Lyrics by John Annen, Juan Delgado, Kelly Fast, Ted Kostiuk, Tim Livengood
.

I feel like I’ve been plugging Sky at Night for weeks, but the Last Man on the Moon programme is now available online here. I’m seriously extremely proud of this interview, and insist you all watch it.

Cheers, Chris